One S&P 500, Two Results
The S&P 500 level quoted in news is normally a price index. Cash dividends paid by constituents are not added to the index level. A total-return index assumes dividends are reinvested without tax or cost.
Why Does the Gap Grow?
A dividend is not merely a cash payment. Reinvestment purchases more units, and those units participate in future distributions and price changes. The compounding difference expands with time.
Which Series Should You Use?
- Use the price index when comparing the quoted market level
- Use total return for a theoretical dividend-reinvestment strategy
- Use fund data—with expenses, tax and tracking error—for a real ETF outcome
HowMuch?'s default S&P 500 simulation uses a price series and excludes dividend reinvestment. That limitation should remain visible in the result and methodology.
How Should You Use the Result?
This analysis is designed to make assumptions visible and reproducible, not to declare one universal winner. Change the amount, start date, currency and contribution frequency in the calculator to see how sensitive the outcome is. Review the worst window as carefully as the best one before making a decision.
A real investment can differ because of execution price, bid-ask spread, commission, tax, product expenses and the data provider's closing-time convention. The figures are therefore a gross historical comparison, not a personal return or a forecast.
