What Happened That Day?
March 23, 2020. Hospitals were overwhelmed, borders were closing, and the S&P 500 had crashed 34% in just 33 days. Most people were either hoarding cash or panic-selling into the decline.
A few people invested $1,000 anyway. Here are the results.
Five Assets, One Date
* Approximate, split-adjusted reference values as of February 24, 2025; taxes, fees and dividends are excluded. Verify the latest result in the calculator.
The Real Lesson: Staying in the Trade
Most people who look at this table would have sold after a 20–30% gain and called it a win. Capturing the full return required holding through 2022 and into 2024. Patience isn't just a virtue in investing — it is the strategy.
Simulate the Apple Scenario Yourself
Change the date, amount, and asset to calculate your own "what if" moment.
Rules for a Fair Comparison
March 23, 2020 was an important closing low for the S&P 500, but Bitcoin trades continuously and gold and equities follow different market hours. One calendar date therefore should not be described as the absolute bottom for every asset. The comparison should use each asset's observation on that date or the nearest valid close.
Equities use split-adjusted prices, the S&P figure is a price index, gold is quoted per ounce in USD and Bitcoin uses BTC/USD. Dividends, tax, fees and currency conversion are excluded. Outside that scope, the table does not prove that one asset is generally superior.
Hindsight Risk
We know March 23 was a major low only in hindsight. At the time, nobody knew whether it was the bottom or the start of another decline. This is a historical experiment about a common start date, not market-timing advice.
How Should You Use the Result?
This analysis is designed to make assumptions visible and reproducible, not to declare one universal winner. Change the amount, start date, currency and contribution frequency in the calculator to see how sensitive the outcome is. Review the worst window as carefully as the best one before making a decision.
A real investment can differ because of execution price, bid-ask spread, commission, tax, product expenses and the data provider's closing-time convention. The figures are therefore a gross historical comparison, not a personal return or a forecast.
