Fix the Comparison Rule First
BIST 100, gold and US dollars need the same monthly 1,000 TRY cash flow. Use the first valid market session of each month and the next valid observation when a date is missing. Do not adjust dates after seeing the result.
Three Choices, Three Risks
BIST 100 carries corporate-profit and Türkiye market risk. Gold in TRY combines the global ounce price with USD/TRY. Holding dollars may not create an investment return unless interest is included; currency movement and deposit yield are separate components.
Is the Nominal Winner Enough?
A larger TRY balance does not guarantee higher purchasing power. Adjust all three results with the same Turkish CPI series. State clearly when dividends, gold spread, dollar interest and FX spread are excluded.
A Sound Result
- Compare one-, three-, five- and ten-year windows
- Keep total TRY contributions equal
- Show the worst interim decline
- Report risk and liquidity, not only one winner
How Should You Use the Result?
This analysis is designed to make assumptions visible and reproducible, not to declare one universal winner. Change the amount, start date, currency and contribution frequency in the calculator to see how sensitive the outcome is. Review the worst window as carefully as the best one before making a decision.
A real investment can differ because of execution price, bid-ask spread, commission, tax, product expenses and the data provider's closing-time convention. The figures are therefore a gross historical comparison, not a personal return or a forecast.
